Originally published at BetStories

I have no idea why Boca Juniors’ betting odds are drifting. Some of you will already know a lot more than me in regards to the Argentinian Primera Division game versus Rosario Central. I do not keep track of sports betting news and the latest team announcements, which most definitely influence the betting odds. I do keep track of odds charts, however.

And when I come by one like this one, I have to write a few words.

rosario-boca-betfair

In this chart coming from a betting exchange, we see the developing trends of the home and away odds, 24 hours before the official game’s kick off time. As Rosario’s odds are shortening, Boca’s ones inevitably are drifting. Or is it the exact opposite? In fact, I do not know whether it’s because punters are avoiding to bet in favor of Boca, or they find Rosario’s odds too generous that has led to this odds behavior.

To tell you the truth, I do not care.

What does interest me, though, is whether Boca’s uptrend will continue during Sunday or not. If that is the case, backing Rosario right now is the rational option. If on the other hand Boca’s odds have peaked and you believe a trend reversal is in order, you’d better hurry and snatch those long odds.

Of course, given the globalization of sports betting, the same odds behavior is apparent at Pinnacle sportsbook.

rosario-boca-oddsarchive

Here we can examine the odds behavior in relation to the time instead of the betting volume presented in Betfair chart’s horizontal axis. Simply put, we see that Boca’s odds began drifting on November 6, and the drift is accelerating today. Check out more odds charts like this at OddsArchive.

What do you think? Will you follow the trend or bet against it? Personally I have always been in favor of the first option since it’s widely accepted that you did value-bet, in case the odds shorten afterward.

Screengrab from BetExplorer

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