My strategy in sports betting is based on an Excel spreadsheet. I add the games in daily basis and I update the results during the day…
In that way, the spreadsheet keeps tracking of my performance, adjusts my bankroll and calculates my stake size for each game. According to some filters I have applied, the spreadsheet tells me what to back and what to lay and for how much.
I have created my sheet in that way, so I can keep track of my performance, whether I would flat bet, or in case I used the Kelly criterion. Since December, I bet according to the latter, although I started with flat betting, since I wanted to be sure it was a winning strategy.
Up to now (late April 2007), I have placed bets on about 5,000 football games while my database consists of about 6,500 games. Here are some interesting stats:.
Flat Betting Performance
Total games: 6,433
Flat Betting Yield: 4,47%
Kelly Betting Yield: 2.30%
Kelly/Flat Turnover ratio: 3:1
Max drawdown (flat): 2,140€ (43 bets)
Max drawdown (Kelly): 58% of bankroll
Confidence: >99% (significance level <0.01)
Kelly Betting Performance
Now, regarding the crucial question about the bankroll needed, it is obvious that for flat betting I should use a bankroll equal to 50 bets the least. Since I bet using the Kelly criterion, I will never go broke theoretically. However, I should mention that I have started with 1,000€ and is now 5 figures.
The strategy applies both to championship and cup games with some major alterations to each. The bets are both backs and lays and no news, injuries or rumors are taken into account.
You can also check how my strategy performs lately (August 2007) or you can find out how to build your own Betting Strategy.
This betting method has come to an end though!
I have been a professional gambler since 2003 when I first played Blackjack at the local casino. During the following years I developed online betting systems and became an expert in sports trading at the betting exchanges, mainly by scalping the betting odds at horse racing markets. I have also been a casual online poker player and share my experience in my personal gambling blog. Forex and stock trading fascinates me and I am testing trading strategies based on technical analysis applied to financial charts.
