Value in the English Premier League

The English soccer Premier League is one of the biggest gambling markets in the world today. There is virtually no limit to the amount you can gamble on the outcome of just about everything connected with the English Premier League and it seems to grow every year.

So for example, in the close season, the English Premier League outshone Europe’s other big soccer leagues in terms of money spent on new players. Now interestingly, the biggest cash spent by any of Europe’s top dogs was that spent by the new guy at the helm of England’s biggest club, Manchester United – Dutchman Louis van Gaal.

Van Gaal has a superb management CV and told the world’s biggest online bookmaker bet365 that he has no regrets about joining United despite the awful start the club has endured under the Dutchman’s first three league matches in charge at Old Trafford.

But this now represents a clear value betting opportunity and there are several reasons for this.

First off, van Gaal was always going to start badly. If you look at his managerial CV that’s what he always does as the team he joins takes a little time to adapt to his 3-5-2 style of play. This poor start has been repeated a number of times already in van Gaal’s career and it will reverse.

Secondly, the two really huge signings he’s made in the shape of Argentinian Angel Di Maria he signed from Real Madrid for £60m, and Radamel Falcao signed on loan from Monaco haven’t had the chance to make an impact yet. Di Maria has played once – away at Burnley – and there were signs right from the start that he’s going to make a real impact for Manchester United.

Thirdly, Man United don’t have the distraction of a Champions League campaign to contend with this season. This is a huge plus for any European side in with a realistic title-winning chance. But this is truer in England than any other league as all the games are so frenetic, the pace so quick – that injuries happen and the sheer number of top level games really takes its toll. This won’t be the case at Old Trafford, obviously.

And finally, there’s the simple fact that the club has been in a state of turmoil since the departure of Sir Alex Ferguson as United won the Premier League title in 2013, followed by the unsuccessful tenure of the unlucky David Moyes – so anyone coming in should be able to make an improvement – and confidence breeds confidence. Louis van Gaal, though, is not a man to panic, nor to bow to public pressure to play a different system or not to stick to his guns.

So Manchester United are the value bet for the title, now, at around 13/1 with bet365 and others at the time of writing. As the season progresses, Man United will make greater progress, pro-rata, than their realistic rivals, all of whom have Champions League campaigns to contend with. That isn’t to say United will win the Premier League – but in a few weeks’ time, you can bet they won’t be anywhere that 13/1 – so that’s a value bet.