12Nov
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Technical Analysis in Betfair Horse Racing Charts

Technical analysis can be applied in Betfair betting markets and many Betfair traders make money trading with it. Here are the Betfair charts of the favorite horses of 6 horse racing betfair markets which took place yesterday. Besides the odds movement, I have added to the Betfair graphs some technical analysis’ elements, mainly trendlines, support and resistance levels. In that way I can discuss how to apply technical analysis in Betfair showing real examples.

Learn about Betfair trading and read the latest news about sports trading in my new trading blog!
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technicalanalysisbetfair1We start with the race of 12:50. Son of Flicka initially had a downward trend moving its’ odds from 2.00 to 1.75. At that point the odds “bounced” and we could easily see that, since the odds broke the blue dashed line that was defined by the previous highs. In the same way we draw the trendline that shows the forthcoming upward trend by connecting the previous lows. Additionally, 1.75 will be the support level, which if we look closely, the odds have bounced off in the beginning of trading. All those defining peaks in a Betfair graph obviously are very important in technical analysis.

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At the 13:00 race the Betfair chart shows the odds movement even after the start of the race just a few seconds before the horses cross the finish line. In the beginning of the graph the odds have met support at about 2.20 and they find it difficult to fall below it, although the highs are getting shorter and shorter. That is a major indication that there will be a strong trend as soon as the support level is broken. Indeed, the odds movement proves that and the odds reach 1.65 in just 2 minutes’ time and all that BEFORE the horse race starts. That happened when the support level at 1.65 was broken. If you ask me whether we can apply technical analysis in trading in-play horse racing markets I won’t answer that now. But if you dare try it and you are quite fast in trading, you might succeed.

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At 13:20 we had a very interesting graph with a lot of opportunities for profitable and probably easy trading. In this chart we can understand when a trendline accelerates. Notice the first blue line which bends upward when we connect the lows of the odds; an indication that not only a trend has been established, but it will speed up. That is the case, since in a couple of seconds the odds skyrocketed from 4.70 to 6.60! In the following minutes the odds move inside a “tunnel” that is defined by the support and resistance levels.

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In the next Betfair chart we can see that when a resistance level is broken, it will be most probably converted into a support level. Notice the first blue horizontal line. That is a difficult graph to use for trading afterwards, since while the trend is facing down and the support level is broken, the odds move suddenly back up. If we had applied a stop loss, we could minimize our losses. However, if we had defined a stop loss at the resistance level, we would have caught the downward trend, since the resistance level was not broken. At this point I should point out that usually we don’t take into account the sudden peaks above or below the resistance or support lines.

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At 13:40 there was a steady upward trend defined by the trendline connecting the lows, which reverted and the following downfall would lose speed according to the trendlines. We should also see that the support level at 2.25 never broke.

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In the last betfair chart showing the odds of the 15:50 race I would say it was a difficult race to trade the favorite. Although the support level is more than obvious, it would be impossible to notice the first downward trend without a major indication, while the second trend was also not so apparent. On the other hand, since the odds started falling again from 2.40, it could have been a good opportunity to back and close our trading position at the support level.

You can see how technical analysis applies in real-time by watching the following trading videos:

How to make money from a Beakout

How to make money in an inactive Betfair market

You can read the article in Czech: Technická analýza na Betfairu

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About Jim Makos

I began with card counting at blackjack tables, then moved to sports trading at betting exchanges, played online poker and ended up investing in US stock markets and forex. Nowadays I mostly write than gamble or invest. Connect with me: StockTwits | TradingView
  • Paulo

    Hi

    For betfair horse racing users there’s a new application called HRFever available for the iphone/ipad. This application show’s you a visual representation of the race based on the odds of each horse as well as the money injected into the market it offers:

    * List of horse racing markets

    * Visual representation of the real race based on the odds and money bet on each horse

    * Amazing suggestion algorithm that will advise you in each horse your bet should go to

    * Innovating way of displaying market fluctuations

    * Easy understanding of the market mechanism for betfair new users

    * One touch betting with the best available odd guaranteed

    * Sound and Visual notifications every time a new race begins

    * Simple bet mechanism in order to take the market best opportunities as fast as possible

    * Simple algorithm parameterization for personalization of bet suggestions

    * Invite a friend with the “tell a friend email”

    For more details visit http://fever.jimmyboys.pt/ or go directly to the appstore https://itunes.apple.com/app/hrfever/id562557872?ls=1&mt=8

    If you can give some opinions about this application I will be very thankful.

    Cheers and happy betting

  • Adam

    A few years late on that topic but I don’t understand your point Jim on that very last move.

    You write:

    “On the other hand, since the odds started falling again from 2.40, it could have been a good opportunity to lay and close our trading position at the support level.”

    Why are you laying as the trend is now that the odds are falling. Isn’t it a back and then close the trade at the support level?

    • http://www.jimmakos.com/ Jim Makos

      Oops, that is correct. My bad. Thanks for bringing this up! Post updated.

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