"Dad, the song we sent as Greece to Eurovision is really good. Usually, these kinds of songs win in this contest."
"Yeah, but you know," I told her, "Australia suddenly passed us in the odds today, while Finland is the favorite."
"Nah," she said, "those two won't win. But there was another song I liked. It's one that goes 'bangaranga' or something like that. I think it's Bulgaria."
That was the first time I had ever heard about Bulgaria's song in this year's Eurovision.
And on the day of the final, I decided to listen to 4–5 songs and check how the betting odds were moving.
Something I used to do for many years when I made a living from gambling.
First Contact
Up until that moment, my only contact with Eurovision was during the livestream I did with my friend George on our Greek podcast.
Even then, I hadn't listened to any songs other than Akyla's. Although we talked about predictions and which countries we thought were most likely to win, we focused more on the logic behind placing bets.
The underlying rationale, that is, which I follow at least when choosing where to risk my money.
And the truth is, this logic is very simple.
Everything Is a Matter of Odds and Probability
So, during the live show, some listeners were asking in the comments which country I would pick. Generally, I avoided answering because I didn't want to give the wrong impression or have someone isolate my answer without context.
However, when they insisted on me giving three countries that I believed had a better "chance," I told them that it doesn't matter at all which ones I think might win. What matters much more is:
- how high the betting odds are, and
- what the psychology of the betting public shows.
And that is very easy to understand by monitoring how betting odds shift.
Just like I never cared about what exactly I was betting on back then—and didn't even know how some sports were played—in Eurovision, I didn't know how the voting worked or which songs were actually good.
But that didn't stop me from assessing Bulgaria's probability of winning Eurovision.
Where Did I Find Bulgaria's Probability?
What is the probability of an event happening?
That is the million-dollar question. The only certain answer is when flipping a perfect coin. Heads or tails has a 50% probability.
How did I calculate Bulgaria's probability of winning?
I simply looked at the betting odds.
In academic research and studies published by the world's leading betting companies, the true probability of an event tends to be the probability implied by the betting odds right before the event starts. Whether that event is a soccer match or a song contest, the "closing odds," as they are called, "reveal" the true probability.
Essentially, it's the wisdom of the crowd that finds the true probability.
So, a few hours before the Eurovision grand final, Bulgaria's odds suddenly started dropping. This meant that its probability of winning was increasing.
So now, all I had to do was find odds that justified placing a bet.