Today, in my free time, I remembered the countless times probabilities have guided my life decisions, from the smallest to the biggest ones, and how those probabilities helped me make better choices.
In general, I can say that everything in my life revolves around numbers. Percentages. The risk/reward ratio.
Ever since I can remember taking life into my own hands and making my own decisions, everything has been about probabilities. From the most important to the most trivial.
- What are the odds of winning at the casino if I drop out of university?
- What’s the probability I’ll beat that particular opponent at poker?
- Is it worth buying this stock? Investing in crypto?
- What are the chances my marriage will succeed?
- Is it smarter to send my kid to a private school or to invest that same money so she’ll have some starting capital when she turns 18?
- Is it a better decision to work on my own and learn everything by myself?
- What are the odds of making it as a YouTuber, a podcaster… a jack-of-all-trades?
So today, I’m going to share a few stories around all that and how these probabilities have shaped some of the decisions I’ve made in my life.
Decisions that I continue to make based on how much they “benefit” me and what I have to “gain” from each one.
Because at the end of the day, probabilities mean nothing if I don’t connect them with outcomes, with what I stand to gain.
So let’s start with the most recent story I have to tell, something that happened just last week.
Listen to the episode on YouTube, or on your favorite podcast streaming platform.
The Sunday Story That Led to This Episode
The story has to do with betting. No surprise there, given my background.
If you’re one of the few people who don’t bet, first of all, good for you.
Second, bear with me for a bit, because you’ll see how this whole line of thinking ties in with everything we’re talking about today.
So, last Sunday, there was a match between Levadiakos and Aris.
The teams themselves don’t really matter here.
On Saturday — the day before the match — some Aris-supporter friends told me that the best outcome they were hoping for was a draw, and that Levadiakos was a really strong team.
