9Oct
betting-system-graph

Did your betting system fail? That is a step closer to success!

Did your betting system fail? Admitting the failure of a betting system just brings you closer to the successful betting system that is waiting to be found! The sooner you aknowledge the failure, the better.

Perhaps you remember a football betting system I began to test 2 months ago. That betting system failed miserably, crashed and burnt into flames but I wasn’t surprised. Been there, done that a hundred of times. And that is why you should first try a betting system on paper, before risking your hard-earned money.

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You see the blue line in the graph below? That is the line of the cumulative value that the system’s bets were supposed to be amassing. In simple words, I should have made 80 units after placing 175 bets (x axis). Instead, I lost about 40 units (orange line). And when I see such a divergence, I know it’s time to call it a day. So long black box football betting system.

betting-system-graph

Thus, I no longer needed to renew my $9 monthly subscription to the tipping service. Although I wasn’t following their tips per se, I did make use of the statistics and calculations that provided to their customers. And judging by the graph above, I doubt they are able to predict football games better than the crowd.

In that case, the orange line should have been in the graph’s positive territory.

As I hate giving bad publicity, I won’t reveal the website in question. Each to his own. Maybe their tips stand a better chance than their probabilities’ calculations. But as far as I am concerned, these calculations are flawed.

Was it a bad betting system?

Not necessarily. It was certainly a very simple one though, as, believe it or not, most successful betting systems are! No need to become a rocket scientist. You just need to bet smart and work equally smart, in order to devise a profitable betting system.

In this case, the difficult part of the betting system was already done by the subscription-based website. That part was calculating the expected odds of the football games. Maybe they used neural networks or a very complicated formula to estimate the odds. Or maybe it was a very simple one! Who knows.

That is why I put it to the test and bought that knowledge of theirs by subscribing to their service. Instead of spending my time thinking of yet another way to use football stats, I gave their service a shot.

Apparently I wasn’t expecting some kind of miraculous Return-On-Investment. 5% would be enough, 10% would have been great. 80 units profit after 175 bets was seriously drawing a line there. That’s almost 40% ROI, way past the ROI of the best tipsters online!

My work was essentially done by the time I had access to their estimates. I merely had to enter their values in an Excel spreadsheet and track the results. If the expected probability multiplied by the decimal odds of the football games gave a result higher than 1, I considered that a value bet. Otherwise, I would ignore that game.

Here is a quick example: You bet on heads or tails at a coin flip. I offer you 2.10 odds. 50% multiplied by 2.10 results to 1.05 which is greater than 1. That’s a value bet right there!

As simple as that. I told you. The difficult part is to estimate the true odds of a football game. The easy part is usually finding the highest odds available, thus the best value bets online. And as long you are constantly placing value bets, sooner or later you will be a winner in sports betting.

Admitting a betting system has failed in time though will have you look out for another one much sooner. That is yet another betting system to test its performance. Be patient. You never know when the next betting system will be the special one! Don’t give up! I certainly won’t.

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About Jim Makos

I began with card counting at blackjack tables, then moved to sports trading at betting exchanges, played online poker and ended up investing in US stock markets and forex. Nowadays I mostly write than gamble or invest. Connect with me: StockTwits | TradingView
  • KingKalvin

    Like I’m sure many, I have a betting system that works. Unlike many, mine actually really does work. I back tested it 8 years, and I have been using it for over 1 year with the expected results. What I want to know is, what is the best way to acquire subscribers?

    Sure I can make a great profit using my strategy but eventually I will get cut off, everybody that makes serious money does. So I want to capitalize on it by getting subscribers who will also make a great profit, but pay me a little bit every month to do so. Do you have any experience with this, or any tips?

    Thanks!

    • http://www.jimmakos.com/ Jim Makos

      If you are going to launch a tipping service website, my advice is to always be honest of the results and picks. Since your strategy works, you don’t have to show off by publishing unrealistic graphs and P&L.

      I myself haven’t run anything similar, so I’m not the best person to make suggestions. Yet, because I am regularly been contacted by bettors who try this kind of service, the one thing that makes a website stand out is honesty, no matter how much they charge.

      Another option is to sell tips via social networks or to create a mailing list with your subscribers.

      You can also create a closed group at Facebook or a private community at Google+, where you limit the access to your customers. This sounds the most hassle-free and low cost solution.

      • KingKalvin

        Thanks for the reply! I agree and like the suggestion of honesty. My whole intent was not to create a website persay, but rather to generate subscribers, using social networks is something I never considered before. Things i am struggling with include finding subscribers, or potential subscribers, keeping my picks hidden, and determining a price to charge. If you, or you know of anybody else that could give me tips on that I would appreciate it.

        Thanks

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