Champions League soccer picks following Matchday 3

The third match day of the Champions League’s group stage is complete. After the goalless Paris St-Germain vs Real Madrid clash and as Arsenal defeated Bayern at home, let’s take a look at the winner betting market and how the odds have moved since the last time we examined the odds charts. The changes might seem insignificant. Are they?

Top Three

The three top spots are still occupied by Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid as before. The minor change is that Barcelona is now trading at the same price level with Bayern, whereas the Spanish team’s odds used to trade a bit higher. Yet, the odds for the two Spanish favorite teams continue fluctuating inside a well-defined range, so no surprises there.

Bayern on the other hand saw their odds retracing a bit. The highest soccer odds for Bayern are found currently at 4.30, having printed 3.90 earlier at Betfair’s betting exchange. Note though that the downward trend line remains valid as shown in the chart. In fact, it could a good time to back the German team if you are a trend-following punter.

What about the Englishmen?

Next three contenders remain the same, as well. Chelsea’s odds climbed higher as predicted in my previous post. The support levels remains safe 10 points lower at 15.0. I would avoid betting in favor or against Chelsea at this point though, unless the odds ascend to 30 or drop to 15.0 respectively.

In the meantime, Manchester City’s odds retest the support level at 15.0, after the support level of 17.0 failed on “an unstable and fragile balance” as I described it on that article. If you risked laying City, I would trade out and bet on an odds decline, expecting the 15.0 level to fail as well. The odds can then easily drop to 10.0, the all-time low in the City’s odds chart.

United’s odds are trading at 25, the support level that poses a challenge for backers to overcome. With so many confirmation points – how often the odds bounced off that level, it is certainly one of the strongest price levels we have talked this far. An uptrend’s resume at this point is my current prediction.

Which teams to bet against?

In my previous post, I told you in regards to betting on Paris St-Germain that “a correction towards 18.0 is the most probable scenario”. Following the goalless draw with Madrid’s team, the odds indeed seem to begin pulling back. Although I consider a safer soccer pick to back the French team at 18.0, risk-seeking punters could place a lay bet at this time and trust the support level at 12.5 to hold, despite betting against the trend – a risky strategy to apply.

Yet, an even safer lay bet is on Arsenal. As the English team beat the big favorite, Bayern, at home, the odds pulled back to the previous resistance level unsurprisingly. I suppose this is a great opportunity to bet against Arsenal and make a profit during the last three games in the group stage.

And finally…

How about some promising long shots?

I singled out Olympiakos, Porto and Dinamo Kiev, but feel free to keep an eye on Benfica and Zenit’s odds. They probably won’t last till the Champions League’s final, but we can still make money if odds continue shortening. Considering the long way these odds can go, the reward should justify the risk. Just  keep your stakes at minimum.