Greek Elections 2009: Betting on politics
Yesterday evening Karamanlis, Prime Minister of Greece, made an announcement regarding the next Greek Elections which will most probably take place in early October. Thus, rumors that his party will not complete their 4-year incumbency as the ruling party are verified and every poll shows the opposition to be up to 6% ahead in the forthcoming Greek election. Betfair was quick once again to add a special betting market under their politics section, and for the time being the only available bet is which party will have the most seats in the next parliamentary election. If you trust the election polls, PASOK seems like a sure bet offering 1-10 odds.
I was with friends last night when we heard of the breaking news about the greek election and I was the only one who didn’t believe it at first. What disturbed me the most though was how fanatically my friends were discussing about this election. It really is sad to see young people become narrow-minded and actually believe their supported party will turn the tide. I don’t have the slightest problem to have our government changed, but nothing guarantees us a change. Far from it in fact.
The party which is now a favorite in the Betfair betting market governed for many years before the conservative party took control in 2003’s elections. After something like 22 or so years of the so-called socialism since 1981 (with a small break between 1989-1992), Nea Dimokratia – Karamanlis’ party – had their chance to show what they were capable of. Inevitably faults were made during the last 6 years and it seems like everyone wants to trust once again PASOK’s political party. Sure, no problem with that but my friends were so sure their party is much better, that they truly believe they are a lot different than the ruling party. They miss the whole picture though, that everyone up there is much or less the same, and the big change can be made by the crowd, the “simple” people.
However, I can’t in fact expect something to really change, judging by my friends’ attitude. If people of 30’s are so fanatically connected to the political parties, unable to really open their eyes and see the truth, all hope has died I’m afraid. Certainly people that have been with a political party for 30 or more years are never to quit on their beliefs and that is acceptable, although it still happens. But to see friends, that I know for more than 10-15 years, become stubborn as hell and for what, for politics for crying out loud, is the biggest disappointment of all. As if they are going to make money at last now that “their” party will have the power. Oh my!
Now, after the election announcement every website or newspaper linked to the opposition are already feeling winners. They are about to get the biggest part of the cake after 6 years. Their time has finally come! Hurray! Even their stocks skyrocketed this morning in the Greek stock market. Take DOL for example, which is the most known editorial company adjacent to PASOK. I planned on buying it this morning while I would carry on my stock trading business. Yesterday’s close was €1.87 and it opened at 1.90, while in a matter of minutes it reached €2.00 for a 7% rise! I’m not going to buy at that price. My goal was set at €2.00 if I had bought at 1.87. Maybe I’m wrong and I should jump on the wagon, in what seems a “sure” uptrend. For the time being I’ll stick to my swing trading rules.
Meanwhile, Betfair will surely add more betting markets to their Politics section regarding the Greek election of 2009. Until then we can only wager on the most seats political betting market. If you trust the polls, it seems like a safe bet.
Read the follow up to this article: Political betting based on election polls in Greek Election 2009