Originally published at SportsBookReview.com
NFL championship officially started a few hours ago. One of the most popular sports of the American continent is expected to attract again the interest of bettors, culminating on February 7 next year, the day of Super Bowl 50. Meanwhile, volatility is already recorded on the odds for this season’s winner. Today, we take a look at some of them.
Top pick to be the winner of this season’s Super Bowl is the team of Seattle. Minutes before the inaugural match of the period, the best odds available online for you are wavering around 6.00 – that is to say if you still believe it is worth placing your bets on last year’s finalist. As expected, the odds tumbled from the sportsbooks’ opening odds last February, when the wagering for the 50th Super Bowl started on the web. At the outset, the odds surprisingly hit 7.30 before retracting, after an increasing number of bettors laid their money on Seahawks, without much hesitation. Among them, there must have been the numerous loyal fans of the team, who are best known by the nickname the “12th Man.” As a consequence, the odds soon dropped to 5.00, which is the lower odds so far, at least at the time these lines are written. The following chart clearly shows this falling trend.
Green Bay Packers
Second on the list of favorites is the team that holds most titles ever won (13) in the history of NFL. Coming from Wisconsin, Green Bay Packers have an 11% chance of winning Super Bowl in 2016, according to the odds of the gaming operators. In preseason betting, Coral and Bet365 are offering the highest odds (8.50) compared to other bookmakers. Nevertheless, a decline on the odds of the second favorite is also apparent. The highest value we could spot on the chart is about 10.0, but the odds have plummeted thereafter to lower levels, landing at 6.50, which is the lowest odds recorded on the followig graph.
New England Patriots
The team from Boston seems it will be the exception that proves the rule. In place of the usual declining curve the odds of favorites follow, the odds in favor of Patriots were driven to the opposite direction, an indication that last year’s champions would probably not be able to repeat their triumph next February. Starting at 5.00 on Betfair, the odds skyrocketed to approximately 14.50, to settle back at 9.00 just a few hours before the first blow on the field in 2015’s regular season, recording a sudden decline during the last days in betting exchanges such as Betdaq and Matchbook. Traditional bookmakers appeared more cautious avoiding such a trap. They opted to increase slowly the odds in respect to New England Patriots.
The odds on Indianapolis Colts shortened impressively in betting markets, worldwide. The first stakes have been placed at 20.0 and 15.0 but the team from Indianapolis seems to have won the trust of players, especially among the sharp bettors, since the odds have found support at about 10.0. However, traders on exchanges along with a number of iGaming firms pushed the odds lower at single-digit levels. Could this be a sign about a possible participation of Indianapolis Colts in the upcoming Super Bowl? It remains to be seen.
The same pattern is also observed as far as regards the prevalence of Indianapolis Colts on AFC (American Football Conference).
As we move forward into NFL 2015 games, several teams will undoubtedly switch places on the list of odds-on favorites. Bettors will be constantly reevaluating strengths and weaknesses of each team and they should adjust their preferences based on new information. It would be really interesting to see though if the current forecasts prove right, or if the prevailing trends today are challenged after the first results, and in what extent. In any case, based on the data available so far, I would refrain from risking on Patriots, whereas, at the same time, betting on Indianapolis would seem to me more promising.
Graphs courtesy of Oddschecker