Originally published at BetStories.com.
South Africa, New Zealand, Argentina and Australia are into the semifinals of the Rugby World Cup that are taking place this weekend. A month ago, when the World Cup was set to begin, we talked of the shortening and drifting betting odds and charts. How have those rugby picks performed till now? Is there still time to take advantage of the market’s dynamics as shown in the odds charts? Let’s find out.
Back in September, it was easy to pick New Zealand to reach the cup’s final, being the top favorite team. An odds decline was already apparent in the chart I published then. The decline accelerated in the following weeks, despite a few bumps along the way.
In that same paragraph, I pointed out to “concentrate on the performance of Australia”. Indeed, the minor decline that was evident in that old chart, led to a price collapse a few days later, as shown in the chart below. Yet, the recent price action does not recommend backing Australia at this point. Having the odds “bottomed” down at around 3.5-4.00 and given the spike to double-digit odds, I would stay away from a bet on Australia to win the World Cup. Fortunately, if you already bet at odds higher than 8.00 before the cup began, you can make some nice profit.
Up next, we find another favorite. South Africa wasn’t in my radar at the beginning of World Cup, as it’s usually the case regarding short odds. The team may have reached the semifinal stage, yet the odds chart is a good sign of nervous punters. In spite of South Africa’s good performance, the odds are not shortening. Even worse, they are now retesting the resistance level at 10.0 and my bet is that South Africa won’t win the cup, if odds trade above that price level.
And finally, Argentina! Who would have thought Argentina making all the way to semifinals? Some lucky punters did and they are already smiling, although the team is still a big underdog. Yet, if you had bet at odds higher than 50.0, wouldn’t you be smiling now that they went that far into the tournament? Now, imagine Scotland hadn’t lost 34-35 to Argentina in quarterfinals. How would my September’s pick on Scotland at 200.0 odds look like today?
Regarding my pick on top tryscorer, the New Zealander Nehe Milner-Skudder, price action doesn’t look that promising. I picked him when odds were hovering around 10.0. While I was happy to witness the decline down to 3.00, the recent spike up to 20.0 leaves no room for a pick.
With all that in mind, I would choose a safe bet and a long shot as my sports picks. And by that, I mean New Zealand is likely a safe bet and Argentina could further upset the Rugby world! I would stay clear of Australia and South Africa, in spite of their favorable odds. Win some, lose some. I’d rather go with the highest possible win rate (New Zealand) and the highest possible payout (Argentina). How about you?
Image courtesy of Elliott Brown.