The last time we’ve talked about US Presidential Elections and the bets upon this political “game,” we referred to the turmoil on the odds that has caused the candidacy of Donald Trump. A great number of bettors had rushed to make their wagers in favor of the new challenger, pushing the odds on Trump lower at 6.00, proclaiming the ultimate of outsiders as the third favorite on the odds! It was “huuuuge…,” as Trump might say.
Unfortunately, I was carried away myself into overestimating Trump’s momentum, which may prove now a big flop, failure or fail… You name it. Following his pompous but well received entrance into the race, soon thereafter gamblers kept a safe distance. In fact, bettors penalized Trump by demonstrating their lack of confidence, favoring other contenders.
First of all, Joe Biden reaped the fruits of bettors’ discomfort.
The rising momentum on the odds in favor of Joe Biden being the next president of the United States is obvious. Despite his third position on the list of favorites right now, betting market dynamics may work in favor of the vice president, ejecting in leaps and bounds Biden to the second place in front of Jeb Bush, who is currently in over his head chasing the democratic candidate and top favorite for the elections, Hillary Clinton.
This would come as no surprise if we look closely at the chart of the odds on Jeb Bush at Betfair.
Even if I choose to not take into account the downwards trend on the odds in favor of Biden, how could I ignore the strong rise on the odds against Bush? Since the resistance stronghold of 6.00 is plundered and while the odds are climbing towards 8.00, I would be reluctant laying cash in favor of Bush given the circumstances. Even if the odds record a brief decline, I would consider this move as “correction” and expect a further push uphill sooner or later. Besides, a duel between Clinton and Biden appears to me more credible option at this moment, considering the ins and outs.
But, hold on a sec. Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton are both fighting from the same camp. That being said, the democratic candidates would have first to win the party’s nomination before they can actually run on the presidential race. Thus, let us take a look at the bets about who is going to be the nominee of the Democratic Party for the US presidential race.
The betting odds on the nominees of the Democratic Party at sportsbooks
Clearly, Hillary Clinton remains the top favorite on her party. This is quite understandable, since Clinton is also for months the top favorite to succeed Barack Obama at the White House. However, several high rollers recently appeared ready to… “confront” the former first lady. This is portrayed on the following chart on the odds in favor of Clinton.
Nevertheless, it is evident that strong resistance does not allow any rise over the 1.50 level. On the other hand, layers try hard to keep the odds moderately high, settling the bets within a short range of 2 to 3 ticks (base points), forbidding in that sense any price to be recorded below the virtual barrier of 1.47. In the event backers are exhausted, we may see a crack appearing on the resistance level, pushing higher the odds on Clinton, which should immediately drive the odds on Biden lower.
Do not let the above chart on Biden confuse you. This graph may indeed be misleading, because on the vertical axe we measure probability values instead of odds. The odds on Biden were extremely high at the beginning, which is demonstrated by the very low probability of him winning the race. The more probability is increased the more we see the odds on Biden driven lower.
Therefore, on this graph a rise of probability means a drop on the odds in favor of Biden. Since probability is already skyrocketing, a further push upwards on the odds for Clinton as explained above should fuel further expectations in favor of Biden. His probability outlook would propel to new highs, resulting in further drop on the odds in favor of the vice president.
Furthermore, if we see the odds on Clinton recording values over 1.50, then we should expect a sharp drop on the odds for Biden. This could even result in Biden capping Clinton as the top favorite running in the US presidential elections against the former Florida governor, Jeb Bush. Another variable in the equation is, of course, how the situation would evolve in the betting markets as regards the question of which party is going to win the elections.
However, the picture is not complicated here. The betting odds on either party winning the presidential elections fluctuate within clear boundaries. The odds in favor of Democrats move between the region of 1.60 and 1.80, while the odds on the bets favoring the Republicans balance between 2.25 and 2.75. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that the odds in favor of the Republican Party hardly react to the changes in the list of frontrunners for the nomination of the party.
Given that Biden is benefited by a drop on the odds for the Democrats as we explained earlier, I will not be surprised if he is backed as the second top favorite behind Clinton, if we see again a further decline towards the level of 1.60 on the odds for the Democratic Party. Meantime, it will be interesting to watch what will be the impact on the odds of both parties in respect to the hugger-mugger developments taking place in each party separately. We may even see a sudden rupture on the above support and resistance lines any time soon. Wanna bet?