Back when I traded the odds of horse racing markets in Betfair, a mistake of mine instead of costing me money actually won EUR800! Unfortunately I don’t have the screenshot of that event, but I feel it was just yesterday that happened. I had been trading the odds of the next race’ favorite horse, when I got carried away and found myself with an open position in-play. Although Murphy’s law says that you’ll lose money each time you let your trade run in-play, this time I was lucky enough to make money out of my mistake! I had lost a few thousand euros in the same exact way in the past, so I expected to feel great if I won. However, I felt it was so unfair to have won that much money, I went on and lost it right at the next horse race! If only I could give the money back to the exact same punters! Talking about justice or what?!
Whenever I bring up this discussion with friends, they all think I was crazy to lose the money because it was lucky to win it in the first place. Obviously money won by mistake has the same exact buying power as every other banknote. Yet, I didn’t regard that money as rightfully mine, sort of stolen money! I have never regretted losing the money and went on trading in the same exact way, trying to average my profit at 10 euros per race. You see now that 800 euros meant 80 winning horse races but I’m sure that each time I would peak at my Betfair account, I would have always reminded myself how lucky I had been to win a large percentage of that. In case you are wondering, I managed to lose the money in the same way I won it, by letting a trade run in-play.
Why do I consider now a good time to share the story with you? I’ve been reading for the third time the comic series by great artist Don Rosa, “The Life and Times of Scrooge McDuck” and its “companion”. I believe the specific comics are truly a huge inspiration for anyone who wants to make something big out of his life. Anyway, in the 7th chapter titled “Dream Time Duck of the Never-Never” young penniless Scrooge is found in a cave with a huge opal worth millions. Before leaving the cave, the idea of getting quickly rich by just having been lucky to have survived a flood next to such a valuable object crosses his mind and almost decides to give up being a prospector and become instantly rich. Of course we all know that was not the case with Scrooge McDuck.
Apparently I didn’t find my own million-dollar opal when I won EUR800 in a couple of minutes. That amount of money wouldn’t make a difference in my way of life anyway. Still, would I prefer making a couple more “profitable” mistakes and reach my own goal, or would I rather become successful by hard work? Would you prefer winning the lottery instead of placing +EV bets day in day out? I myself look for huge jackpots in lotteries before taking a shot, so it would actually be a +EV bet! But it’s all the way to daily work for me, no lucky mistakes or else I’m giving it back!
