Studying the odds behavior for my next NBA picks this weekend

Oh boy, I am so good at this. NBA odds have moved exactly how I expected since my last report on the NBA betting markets. And it was not because I studied teams’ stats and three-point percentages. It was merely due to simple, quick and do-it-yourself betting chart analysis.

No, this is not a bragging post.

This is about the payoff you get when you do your homework and have an actual betting plan. This is about how relaxed you feel when your betting decisions aren’t made in random.

Of course, I could be wrong as I often am in so many other situations and markets. From time to time, though, we grab the bull’s horns and ride.

“Cut your losses and let winners run”, is a popular quote from finance. And it’s pretty much the case for my recent NBA picks. Who would have known, right?

Do I sound a bit overwhelmed and arrogant? Perhaps there is a reason.

Quick review of my predictions for the NBA Championship winner

So, before I discuss the odds behavior of NBA games scheduled for the upcoming weekend, let’s see briefly how my picks for the NBA 2015/16 winner perform till now.

Starting with the declining odds, I had pointed out Warriors, Hawks and Raptors’ charts. I made clear that we should trust Golden State, “given the increased credibility due to the betting volume”. Back then Warriors’ odds were trading for 5.00 (+400 US odds). They are now down to 2.80 (+180 US odds) and don’t seem they are stopping, either.

Atlanta and Toronto’s NBA odds did drift. I can see that. It’s impossible for all odds to shorten at the sime time. That’s where the “I trust” part works a treat.

Cavaliers and Spurs’ odds haven’t moved considerably in November. In my old post, I introduced you to their betting charts with the heading “Holding Steady”. Can’t get any clearer than that.

Not only did the odds keep calm, but they both moved slightly towards the direction I predicted if they ever made a move. That is, Cleveland’s odds shortened below the support level at 4.00 (+300) and San Antonio’s odds momentarily penetrated the resistance level at 7.00 (+600).

I don’t even need to redraw the support and resistance lines. I did that in my previous post and I stand even firmer on those picks now after that kind of activity: I expect Cavaliers’ odds to drop to 3.00 and Spurs’ odds to drift to 10 or even 12 (+1100).

Finally, let’s examine the fake move I described a month ago. Clippers’ odds had fallen below the support level but quickly reverted and began climbing to 15.0 (+1400). I considered that a genuine fake move back then. Fake moves tend to leave punters confused and lure them into inactivity. Isn’t it the same with defenders in basketball, conceding an easy basket right after falling for a fake move?

Well, Clippers’ current odds are approaching 30.0 (+2900)! Bettors who trusted their money to the Los Angeles team, are left watching their “investment” lose money, instead of taking the loss early and move on. “Cut your losses”, people.

Weekend NBA picks

It’s hard to do any meaningful chart analysis so soon for the upcoming games. The liquidity isn’t there yet. Most odds haven’t moved to the point we can extract some information about the crowd’s behavior. Admitedly though, any move we’ll see over the coming hours will be from smart money and sharp bettors. Act accordingly.

With that in mind, I noticed San Antonio’s odds dropping against Memphis. Were sportsbooks wrong in their opening lines? Are they still wrong? If yes, Spurs’ odds will continue falling. And if that’s the case, then there is still value at current odds.

At this time of writing, I am afraid I am unable to spot any other discrepancies in the NBA betting charts for the weekend ahead. I’d be surprised though if odds remained unchanged. Yet, we don’t need to bet on every NBA game out there! Be selective. Do your homework and keep an eye on the odds behavior. Remember: if you are doing what everyone else is doing, you are doing it wrong.