Betting · · 4 min read

Champions League: How odds moved before the Knockout phase

As the top three favorites continue to battle for the Champions League Cup, we take a look at how betting odds moved during the group stage.

Champions League: How odds moved before the Knockout phase

Bayern, Barcelona and Real Madrid continue to top the Champions League online betting markets as expected. With 16 teams left into the European Cup, I examine how cappers bet during the group stage and I predict how odds will likely move during the final phases, based on their respective charts.

Champions League predictions recap

Back in October, I pointed out Bayern’s strong decline. The German team looked unstoppable, while Spanish teams, Barcelona and Real Madrid, watched their odds fluctuate inside well-defined ranges. Meanwhile, English teams were struggling to keep bettors risking their money on them. Chelsea and Machester United saw their odds drift enormously and Manchester City’s odds were the only ones that looked somewhat promising. The shortening odds of Paris St-Germain were worth a mention in that post for bettors targeting longshots.

Fast forward to November’s update, Paris St-Germain were still holding strong despite the decline’s pause in their odds chart. Things did worsen for UK soccer teams as Arsenal joined the rest in the skyrocketing odds phenomenon. Again, the only British team that seemed to avoid the turmoil was Manchester City. Bayern continued to prevail as Real and Barcelona’s odds charts were uneventful and I added Olympiakos and Porto’s charts in my watchlist. Both outsiders were performing well at that time, alerting some bettors who risked on really high odds (Olympiakos was trading at as high as 1000!).

So, how are things looking up for the Champions League contenders?

The top three: Bayern, Real, Barcelona – not necessarily in that order

Bayern’s chart continues to look promising for anyone interested to back them. The only alarming signal is that brief spike above 4.00 at the chart’s far right. Surely, the decline is seemingly paused. That spike might be an indication of a reversal. Yet, unless we see a price printing above that spike, I’m betting on a downtrend’s resume.

At last, something is happening in Spanish teams’ odds. Backers have apparently taken control of the market regarding Barcelona’s chances to win the Cup, as odds finally fell below 4.00. A likely scenario is the odds retracing back to 4.00 before continuing their downfall. I wouldn’t object to back them now either, as their odds will probably shorten.

The exact opposite scenario would likely take place for Real Madrid’s odds. As the resistance level at 7.00 failed, layers have pushed the odds up to 8.00 before they reverted back to 7.00. My money is on a further climb of the drifting odds, which would further diminish Real’s chances to win Champions League this year.

The Englishmen: The final act of Chelsea and Arsenal?

Manchester City remains the only team from the UK that seems to stand a chance, as their odds behavior continues showing positive signs. Although we can’t talk of a decline here, I can’t speak of drifting odds either, which is a good thing.

Chelsea managed to proceed to the next round somehow, despite the grim odds. Still, cappers didn’t rush into backing the English team. In fact, odds failed to drop below the support level at 20.0. I suppose Chelsea remains a great option if you are looking to bet against a team, especially under these circumstances and given they are trading close to the support level. The brief support penetration wouldn’t deter me from laying Chelsea.

And then, there’s Arsenal. Oh, that odds chart. So much money went back and forth in the last few months. I can only imagine the psychological stress of backers watching their investment go south, and then being reinvigorated as they managed it through the knock-out stage. They are now up against Barcelona, so as expected, odds have resumed drifting, after the spectacular dive from 90.0! Notice that the decline stopped at a previous strong, support level. That was a really great spot to place a lay bet.

Outsiders: Atletico Madrid or PSV?

Recently, Paris’ odds drifted from 12.50 to 17.50, putting a stop on the aforementioned decline. As the trendline is penetrated, I have no reason to believe they are shortening any time soon.

Atletico Madrid on the other hand, have pushed themselves between Manchester and Paris, making them the No. 5 favorite out of nowhere. I can see their odds shortening to 10.00 but they need to perform exceptionally well in the later rounds if we want to see single-digit odds for the Spaniards. Personally, I’d prefer backing PSV at this point, given the ground their odds will cover following a positive result against Atletico.

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