Mar 4, 2014 3 min read

Trying out a Forecasting Tool that Predicts Betfair Trends

Wouldn’t it be great if you could predict Betfair trends without spending hours on research? You just back the odds that are destined to shorten or lay the odds that are predicted to drift. Lean back to your chair and enjoy your coffee, while the market confirms your prediction. Then, you close your trade and move on to the next market of the betting exchange. Easy, huh?

That is exactly what a forecasting tool promises to do. Its developers contacted me last night, offering me the chance to try out their tool for a whole week. Would you pass this offer, which I estimate at £500-2,500 (steep price to pay, I know)?

I certainly did not and as I wait for directions, I spent some time on their website. I am afraid I will not disclose where you can check out the forecasting tool, before I make sure it is worth of your time. I do not want to be the reason you paid for a questionable product. That is why I never disclosed the tipping service I tested against market’s efficiency by the way. Because it sucked, like many others out there.

The forecasting tool is based on an algorithm. With that said, the tool is able to give a prediction of the betting odds available at post time. Say for example that a horse is trading at 6.60. The forecasting tool estimates that odds will fluctuate around 4.20 a couple of minutes before the race starts. Thus, the tool expect odds to shorten.

In simple words, the forecaster promises to predict steamers and drifters.

Of course, it does not have to make an accurate prediction. With all that space betting odds are predicted to travel, the tool will make me money even if odds shorten down to 6.00 or 5.00. Like in the Southwell race below.

Assuming I backed £1,000 at 6.60 and laid the same amount of money at 5.00, I now secured a profit of £1,600, should that horse wins the race! By greening up at Betfair, the profit runs down to £320 no matter the winner. Do that for 15 races per day and you see the potential of successfully predicting Betfair trends.

Unfortunately though, the forecasting tool does not predict all races. The algorithm depends on several factors and data points, such as liquidity. Depending on the analyzed data, it will alert you when it shows up on a race.

The developers also expect experienced traders to reap the rewards of the forecasting tool and I must agree. Besides, this is how they found me and I suspect it is down to my YouTube video of Betfair trading. Although beginners will benefit from their services, they are short of two things in my opinion: discipline and money.

Inexperienced bettors and traders implement a poor risk to reward approach when gambling online. While they try to make millions with a dime, in fact they are risking a lot to win small! This is done in various ways, one of which is by chasing losses. By chasing losses and not letting winners run, beginners’ risk-to-reward ratio suffers dramatically.

Since they also fail to make good predictions and their success rate is below par, their bankroll eventually dries up.

Still, they were already short on cash. In the example above, I used a hefty amount of money to take advantage of the forecasting tool: one thousand pounds. I take it beginners cannot afford that kind of money. Yet, even if they had the money, they would be hesitant to place such a big bet, afraid of losing it. Of course, in trading, you can cut losses early, but that is where discipline comes in.

Beginners will often keep the position open for a lengthy period of time, if the odds move against them. By the time they decide to take the loss, it is already too late. Their praying did not pay off. And that is when their risk to reward suffers greatly, not to mention if they let an open trade go in-play and lose the whole position! An experienced trader would never allow himself suffer such a loss.

I expect to share my view on the forecasting tool in the next weeks, given there is some merit in doing so. In the meantime, I would suggest you read these posts I wrote before, or you can check out my Betfair trading guide for beginners:

How much would you pay for a forecasting tool that promises to reveal Betfair trends to you? Do you think many people utilizing the tool would harm the results? Let me know in the comments below.

You may find my verdict for OddsForecaster at this blog post.